US Politics in Trump era
The coronavirus recession is over for the rich, but the working class is far from recovered
Record government and corporate debt risks ‘tipping point’ after pandemic passes
There Are Economic Warning Signs for Trump in the Midwest
President Trump campaigned in 2016 on a pledge to restore jobs — manufacturing jobs, specifically — to long-struggling Midwestern communities, and he has made the economy a centerpiece of his re-election campaign. But job growth has slowed sharply this year in Michigan, Pennsylvania and other states that were critical to Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016, as well as in states like Minnesota that he narrowly lost.
A Recession Warning Reverses, but the Damage May Be Done
The yield curve, an indicator from the bond market just a few months ago set off alarms about the risk of a recession. Now it has gone back to normal, and that signal has been met with relief in the markets. But as far as the economy is concerned, it might not matter. Once the yield curve has predicted a recession, one usually follows even if that signal changes later.
It Will Take More Than Lower Mortgage Rates for a Housing Rally
The Federal Reserve is hoping that its latest interest-rate cut will help keep the economy safely at cruising altitude. But don’t expect it to provide much of a lift to the housing market. Few economists expect the housing market to take off in response to this week’s rate cut, because rates aren’t what was holding back housing in the first place. Instead, they point to other factors.
G.D.P. Posts 1.9% Rate as Trade Fight and Global Weakness Hit Economy
Dogged by uneasiness over trade frictions and weak global growth, the American economy’s growth inched lower over the summer. Gross domestic product — the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy — grew at a 1.9 percent annual rate for the third quarter, according to preliminary data released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday.
U.S. retail sales fall unexpectedly, signaling a new crack in a weakening economy
U.S. manufacturing falls into deep recession as Trump’s trade war drags on
Trucking ‘bloodbath’: Around 4,200 trucking payrolls slashed in Sept.
U.S. manufacturing falls into deep recession as Trump’s trade war drags on
U.S. manufacturing fell deeper into a contraction last month, erasing hope of a quick turnaround for the industry and handing a blow to President Trump’s promises that he would revive blue-collar jobs and companies. September marked the worst month for U.S. manufacturing in more than a decade, since June 2009.
Wall Street Is Buzzing About Repo Rates. Here’s Why.
Investors take for granted that the Federal Reserve controls interest rates. But a surprisingly lively couple of days in short-term money markets has meant that the “how” became nearly as important as the “why.” The stress started on Monday in the market for repurchase agreements, or repos. Repos are short-term loans mainly used by banks and hedge funds in their daily bond trading and brokerage businesses.
Six in 10 Americans expect a recession and higher prices as Trump’s approval rating slips amid concern over his trade policies
U.S.-China trade war intensifies as Trump calls on American companies to cut ties with China
The trade war between the U.S. and China worsened Friday as Beijing imposed retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion in American goods and President Trump took the extraordinary step of calling on U.S. companies stop doing business with China. The new tariffs, which included reinstated levies on auto products, delivered a strategically timed blow as recession warning signs cast doubt on the strength of the U.S. economy.
Trump confirms he’s considering a payroll tax cut amid mounting economic concerns
President Trump on Tuesday confirmed that he is considering whether to push for a temporary payroll tax cut amid mounting concerns about an economic slowdown. Trump’s comments pulled back the curtain on a freewheeling policy process within the White House. Senior administration officials are both trying to assess the real weaknesses in the economy while also determining whether they should take any steps to intervene before the 2020 elections.
Germany Nears Recession and Chinese Factories Slow in Trade War Fallout
Recession watch: What is an ‘inverted yield curve’ and why does it matter?
Stock markets tanked Wednesday after the bond market sounded a loud warning that the U.S. economy might be headed toward a recession. Investors are spooked by a scenario known as the “inverted yield curve,” which occurs when the interest rates on short-term bonds are higher than the interest rates paid by long-term bonds. What it means is that people are so worried about the near-term future that they are piling into safer long-term investments.
Lower Rates Already Hit Housing. They’re Not Helping Much.
Fed Cuts Interest Rates for First Time Since 2008 Crisis
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade on Wednesday as it attempted to guard the record-long economic expansion against mounting global risks. The widely expected quarter-point move, the Fed’s first since it cut rates to near zero in 2008, is meant to protect the economy against the potentially harmful effects of a growth slowdown in China and Europe and uncertainty from President Trump’s trade war.
U.S. Economy Slows, Denying Trump 3% Talking Point
The American economy is slowing, dragged down by trade tensions and weak growth overseas. But there are few signs that the decade-long expansion is on the verge of stalling out.Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy, rose at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter, according to preliminary data released by the Commerce Department on Friday.
Wall St. Ignored Signs of Trouble for Months. Now It Sees Risks Everywhere
For stock investors in the United States, the political and economic outlooks have suddenly become ominous. More volatility could be in store this week. “The fact is that politics is driving the economy to an extent that is very atypical,” said Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG, an institutional brokerage firm. “We would say probably to the greatest extent that we’ve seen in our investing lifetime.”
GDP: Trump tariff, trade war hit to economy
What’s the Yield Curve? ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
The bond market’s yield curve is perilously close to predicting a recession — something it has done with surprising accuracy — and it’s become a big topic on Wall Street. Some economists on Wall Street think the economy could be growing at around a nearly 5 percent annualized clip this quarter. But if the current economic vigor is only reflecting a short-term stimulus coming from the Trump administration’s tax cut, then some kind of slowdown is to be expected.
There’s a big red flag in today’s report on the economy
For the duration of this economic expansion, consumer spending has been the dynamo driving growth in gross domestic product, or GDP. But now there are indications Americans are getting a little too dynamic. Their actions are out of whack. For the past two years, spending has risen faster than disposable personal income, as pointed out by Jason Furman, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics