US Politics in Trump era Public date: 03.10.2019 13:07:34

4 Jun 2019

The average millennial has a net worth of $8,000. That’s far less than previous generations.

Millennials are doing far worse financially than generations before them, with student loans, rising rents and higher health-care costs pushing the average net worth below $8,000, a new study shows. The net worth of Americans aged 18 to 35 has dropped 34 percent since 1996, according to research released Thursday by Deloitte, the accounting and professional services giant.
Millennials are doing far worse financially than generations before them, with student loans, rising rents and higher...

Publisher: Forbes

Author:

24 Dec 2016

Economically, Could Obama Be America’s Best President?

Despite ongoing attacks from pro-business Republicans, there is data indicating that President Obama has a sterling, possibly incomparable, record regarding economic growth policies. The reports states that economic performance is directly related to policies enacted by the president and Obama deserves all the credit for that.
Despite ongoing attacks from pro-business Republicans, there is data indicating that President Obama has a sterling,...
2 Feb 2019

January jobs: The US economy added 304,000 jobs. Workers got a 3-cent raise.

Employers added 304,000 new jobs to the US economy in January — once again surpassing economic forecasts, according to the latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, the latest jobs report once again shows little wage growth, which remains the biggest weakness in the American economy. The average US worker hasn’t seen their paycheck get much bigger since the Great Recession, which ended around 2009.
Employers added 304,000 new jobs to the US economy in January — once again surpassing economic forecasts, according to...
13 Sep 2018

Social Security, food stamps, other programs kept 44 million people out of poverty

The US Census Bureau just dropped its annual load of statistics on American poverty and income, and the data shows that 2017 was a good year for many Americans, and not-so-great for others. On the upside: 2.4 million more people snagged full-time jobs, the median household income ticked up, and poverty rates dropped slightly. The bottom 10 percent of US households — earning an average income of $14,219 — saw their incomes fall slightly compared to the previous year, adjusting for inflation.
The US Census Bureau just dropped its annual load of statistics on American poverty and income, and the data shows that...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

4 Sep 2019

Trump Says China Will Suffer as Data Shows Trade War Hurting U.S.

President Trump said on Tuesday that Chinese manufacturing would “crumble” if the country did not agree to the United States’ trade terms, as newly released data showed his trade war was washing back to American shores and hurting the factories that the president has aimed to protect.
President Trump said on Tuesday that Chinese manufacturing would “crumble” if the country did not agree to the...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

21 Jul 2018

Trump Blasts Fed, China and Europe for Putting U.S. Economy at a Disadvantage

President Trump accused China and the European Union of manipulating their currencies and continued to criticize the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates, saying those moves are putting the United States at a disadvantage. His comments once again break with longstanding White House norms, in which American presidents tend to talk sparingly about the United States dollar and, when they do, generally reiterate that a strong dollar is in the national interest.
President Trump accused China and the European Union of manipulating their currencies and continued...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

22 Dec 2017

Trump Promised to Protect Steel. Layoffs Are Coming Instead.

The layoffs have stunned these steelworkers who, just a year ago, greeted President Trump’s election as a new dawn for their industry. Mr. Trump pledged to build roads and bridges, strengthen “Buy America” provisions, protect factories from unfair imports and revive industry, especially steel.
The layoffs have stunned these steelworkers who, just a year ago, greeted President Trump’s election as a new dawn for...
28 Jan 2018

There’s a big red flag in today’s report on the economy

For the duration of this economic expansion, consumer spending has been the dynamo driving growth in gross domestic product, or GDP. But now there are indications Americans are getting a little too dynamic. Their actions are out of whack. For the past two years, spending has risen faster than disposable personal income, as pointed out by Jason Furman, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics
For the duration of this economic expansion, consumer spending has been the dynamo driving growth in gross...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

27 Jul 2019

U.S. Economy Slows, Denying Trump 3% Talking Point

The American economy is slowing, dragged down by trade tensions and weak growth overseas. But there are few signs that the decade-long expansion is on the verge of stalling out.Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy, rose at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter, according to preliminary data released by the Commerce Department on Friday.
The American economy is slowing, dragged down by trade tensions and weak growth overseas. But there are few signs that...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

31 May 2019

Trade War Starts Changing Manufacturers in Hard-to-Reverse Ways

When the Trump administration first imposed tariffs on $34 billion in Chinese imports in July, Andy LaFrazia figured it was just another curveball for his company. “Everyone was saying: ‘Oh, it’s a negotiating tactic. It won’t last long,’” Mr. LaFrazia recalled. But nearly a year later, the trade war shows no sign of cooling off. Evidence is mounting that the conflict has taken an economic toll.
When the Trump administration first imposed tariffs on $34 billion in Chinese imports in July, Andy LaFrazia figured it...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

28 Jul 2018

G.D.P. Grew at 4.1% Rate in U.S. in Latest Quarter. Here’s What That Means.

Economic growth surged in the second quarter — but don’t expect the boom to last. The second-quarter acceleration was widely anticipated by economists, a  result of a confluence of events unlikely to recur. Most economists expect growth to slow in the second half of the year. Still, recent data does suggest that the pace of growth has picked up this year.
Economic growth surged in the second quarter — but don’t expect the boom to last....
30 Jan 2019

Fed Signals End of Interest Rate Increases

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady on Wednesday and signaled that it may not raise them again anytime soon, a surprising reversal from last month, when the central bank indicated it expected to continue raising rates in 2019. In a statement following a two-day meeting of its policymaking committee, the Fed said that economic growth remained “solid,” and that it expected growth to continue.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady on Wednesday and signaled that it may not raise them again anytime soon,...
23 Mar 2019

US budget deficit hits record $234 billion in February, national debt

The US posted a record budget deficit in the month of February, according to a new report form the Treasury Department. The budget deficit for February came in at $234 billion, according to the Treasury, higher than the previous monthly record of $231.7 billion set in 2012. The deficit was also 8.7% higher than the $215.2 billion deficit posted in February 2018.
The US posted a record budget deficit in the month of February, according to a new report form the Treasury Department....
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3 Nov 2018

GDP: Trump tariff, trade war hit to economy

There's mounting anecdotal evidence that President Donald Trump's trade war is causing trouble for the US economy and businesses. But Friday's report on third-quarter gross domestic product may be the best hard evidence yet that the tariffs are causing major disruptions in the economy.
There's mounting anecdotal evidence that President Donald Trump's trade war is causing trouble for the US economy and...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

8 Jan 2019

U.S. Carbon Emissions Surged in 2018 Even as Coal Plants Closed

America’s carbon dioxide emissions rose by 3.4 percent in 2018, the biggest increase in eight years, according to a preliminary estimate published Tuesday. Strikingly, the sharp uptick in emissions occurred even as a near-record number of coal plants around the United States retired last year, illustrating how difficult it could be for the country to make further progress on climate change in the years to come, particularly as the Trump administration pushes to roll back federal regulations that limit greenhouse gas emissions.
America’s carbon dioxide emissions rose by 3.4 percent in 2018, the biggest increase in eight years, according to a...

Publisher: Forbes

Author:

6 Jul 2019

Trump Is Falling Almost 1 Million Jobs Short Vs. Obama

Trump’s economy is not the best ever. In fact Obama added almost one million more jobs than Trump over the same timeframe.  Trump entered office on January 20, 2017, and starting with February 2017 he has been President for 29 months. Total job growth during that time has been 5.613 million or 194,000 per month with those results being helped by the tax cut. Working back from January 2017, Obama’s last month in office, there had been 6.423 million jobs added or 221,000 per month. The difference for the 29 months is 810,000 more jobs or 27,000 more per month than Trump.
Trump’s economy is not the best ever. In fact Obama added almost one million more jobs than Trump over the same...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

19 Jan 2018

Tax Overhaul Is a Blow to Affordable Housing Efforts

The last time that Congress approved a sweeping overhaul of the federal tax code, in 1986, it created a tax credit meant to encourage the private sector to invest in affordable housing. It has grown into a $9 billion-a-year social program that has funded the construction of some three million apartments for low-income residents.But the Republican tax plan approved last month amounts to a vast cutback, making it much less likely that such construction will continue apace.
The last time that Congress approved a sweeping overhaul of the federal tax code, in 1986, it created a tax credit meant...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

24 Nov 2018

U.S. Climate Report Warns of Damaged Environment and Shrinking Economy

A major scientific report issued by 13 federal agencies on Friday presents the starkest warnings to date of the consequences of climate change for the United States, predicting that if significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming, the damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by century’s end.
A major scientific report issued by 13 federal agencies on Friday presents the starkest warnings to date of the...
21 Aug 2019

Trump confirms he’s considering a payroll tax cut amid mounting economic concerns

President Trump on Tuesday confirmed that he is considering whether to push for a temporary payroll tax cut amid mounting concerns about an economic slowdown. Trump’s comments pulled back the curtain on a freewheeling policy process within the White House. Senior administration officials are both trying to assess the real weaknesses in the economy while also determining whether they should take any steps to intervene before the 2020 elections.
President Trump on Tuesday confirmed that he is considering whether to push for a temporary payroll tax cut amid...
24 Dec 2018

Exasperated over the market plunge, Trump asks advisers whether he can fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell

President Trump has asked internal and external advisers about whether he can fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell, two people familiar with the exchanges said, in a sign of his mounting frustration with the central bank chief. News of Trump’s discussions about Powell prompted rebukes from lawmakers and alarm among economists and Wall Street executives Saturday
President Trump has asked internal and external advisers about whether he can fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H....

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

3 Apr 2018

Teachers Go on Strike in Oklahoma and Kentucky: ‘It Really Is a Wildfire’

Thousands of teachers in Oklahoma and Kentucky walked off the job Monday morning, shutting down school districts as they protested cuts in pay, benefits and school funding in a movement that has spread rapidly since  igniting in West Virginia earlier this year.
Thousands of teachers in Oklahoma and Kentucky walked off the job Monday morning, shutting down school districts as...
4 Jul 2019

Radical Republican Tax Cuts are Bankrupting the Nation

Thanks to Donald “I’m the King of Debt” Trump, our federal government’s debt is rising much faster than under President Barack Obama despite Trump’s frequent assertions that the economy is much better now that he is in the White House. And that $300 per month of added debt you owe via our Uncle Sam is scheduled to grow and grow.
Thanks to Donald “I’m the King of Debt” Trump, our federal government’s debt is rising much faster than under...
3 May 2019

Why Trump Gets a ‘C’ on the Economy

Donald Trump keeps boasting about what a great economy he should get credited for creating. But his administration’s own reports don’t support his claims, which also don’t come close to what he promised voters. His results so far have been, well, just average.
Donald Trump keeps boasting about what a great economy he should get credited for creating. But his administration’s...
1 Dec 2016

Trump’s Showdown With Manufacturer Exposes Obama’s Weakness on Outsourcing

Excellent article, discusses the role and power of the president in pressuring businesses to do the right thing for the American people. It points out that Obama has used those powers to influence businesses in certain areas like pay hikes but refused to do that when it came to outsourcing.
Excellent article, discusses the role and power of the president in pressuring businesses to do the right thing for the...
2 Aug 2019

Trump says he will impose new tariffs on $300 billion of imports from China starting next month, ending brief cease-fire in trade war

President Trump unexpectedly announced on Thursday that he will impose new tariffs on $300 billion worth of imports from China, effectively taxing every product that Americans buy from China. The president acted one day after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer wrapped up two days of talks in Shanghai aimed at a comprehensive trade deal.
President Trump unexpectedly announced on Thursday that he will impose new tariffs on $300 billion worth of imports...
18 Dec 2018

Seventeen Reasons to Hate the US Stock Market

We’ve hated this market of late and advised investors to sell. Emerging markets in general and China, in particular, did better than US stocks, but that’s small consolation. Today’s ill wind blew nobody good but owners of government bonds. There are lots of political reasons for the market to plunge, but there is also an important vulnerability: Most of the profitability among US corporations is concentrated in a very small number of names.
We’ve hated this market of late and advised investors to sell. Emerging markets in general and China, in particular,...

Publisher: Axios

Author:

5 Apr 2019

The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

The U.S. saw its highest level of layoffs in a first quarter since 2009, data from staffing firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas released Thursday showed.By the numbers: Employers cut 190,410 jobs in the first 3 months of the year — 10.3% higher than the number of layoffs announced in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 35.6% higher than job cuts announced in the same quarter of 2018.
The U.S. saw its highest level of layoffs in a first quarter since 2009, data from staffing firm Challenger, Gray &...
6 Jul 2017

Ahead of G-20 summit, new trade deal snubs the U.S.

Ahead  of the G-20 summit, Japan and the European Union are expected to  announce a trade deal on Thursday in yet another sign that President  Donald Trump’s “America First” approach to trade and policy isn’t paying off. Creating a free trade area the size of North America, the deal will greatly expand global trade. Expected to lower barriers to the exportation of cars between Japan and the European bloc, the agreement will also reportedly allow for the import of trains and agricultural products to Japan specifically.
Ahead  of the G-20 summit, Japan and the European Union are expected to  announce a trade deal on Thursday in...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

21 May 2017

How Rollbacks at Scott Pruitt’s E.P.A. Are a Boon to Oil and Gas

Mr. Trump and his team believe that loosening the regulatory grip on business will help the economy, create jobs and allow Americans “to share in the riches,” as he said during the campaign. But in the energy field, environmentalists, Democrats and even some in the industry fear  the efforts will backfire, harming health and safety without creating much economic benefit.
Mr. Trump and his team believe that loosening the regulatory grip on business will help the...

Publisher: Vox

Author:

28 Sep 2016

The press thought Trump’s first 30 minutes were his best. They were his worst.

The press needs to do its job, not the voters’ job. The first 30 minutes was called for Trump in the debate. Eventhough the author agrees that stylistically this was Trumps' best portion of the debate, factually it was his worst. He was wrong on NAFTA, trade, jobs.
The press needs to do its job, not the voters’ job. The first 30 minutes was called for Trump in the debate....
16 Sep 2017

Gary Cohn Is Giving Goldman Sachs Everything It Ever Wanted From the Trump Administration

On the campaign trail, Trump had spoken often about the importance of investing in infrastructure. Yet the president-elect had apparently failed to appreciate that the government would need to come up with  hundreds of billions of dollars to fund his plans. Cohn, brash and bold, wired to attack any moneymaking opportunity, pitched a fix that would put Wall Street firms at the center: Private-industry partners could help infrastructure get fixed, saving the federal government from going deeper into debt.
On the campaign trail, Trump had spoken often about the importance of investing in infrastructure. Yet...
10 May 2019

Stores closing include CVS, Office Depot, Walmart in 2019

The staggering rate of store closures that has rocked the retail industry over the past couple of years is expected to continue in 2019, with roughly the same level of closures expected this year. Retailers closed a record 102 million square feet of store space in 2017, then smashed that record in 2018 by closing another 155 million square feet, according to estimates by the commercial real-estate firm CoStar Group.
The staggering rate of store closures that has rocked the retail industry over the past couple of years is expected to...
24 Aug 2019

Fed Chair Powell vows to ‘sustain the expansion’ but not in the way Trump wants

President Trump escalated his unprecedented attacks against America’s central bank Friday, calling Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell an “enemy” of the United States that is as bad as China, a tweet that triggered a stock market slide and came minutes after Powell vowed to keep the economy growing.
President Trump escalated his unprecedented attacks against America’s central bank Friday, calling Federal Reserve...
30 Jul 2019

With the economy on the line, the Fed prepares to take its biggest gamble in years

The Federal Reserve this week is all but certain to cut interest rates despite unemployment being at historic lows, a highly unusual action that is shaping up to be the biggest gamble of Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell’s brief tenure as leader of the world’s most powerful economic institution. Some economists, Fed officials and people on Main Street say the Fed’s action will benefit the stock market more than the real economy. And they argue cutting rates would introduce risks that could worsen the next downturn.
The Federal Reserve this week is all but certain to cut interest rates despite unemployment being at historic lows, a...
22 Jan 2019

Shutdown in U.S., slowing growth in China fuel concerns over global economy

Fears are rising about the state of the world’s biggest economies, with China posting its worst annual growth in decades and the United States injecting more uncertainty with tariffs and a lengthy government shutdown. China reported Monday that its economy expanded at 6.6 percent last year — a figure that would be good for many countries but represents the slowest growth for China in 28 years.
Fears are rising about the state of the world’s biggest economies, with China posting its worst annual growth in...
10 Sep 2018

Under Trump, the jobs boom has finally reached blue-collar workers. Will it last?

Blue-collar jobs are growing at their fastest rate in more than 30 years, helping fuel a hiring boom in many small towns and rural areas that are strong supporters of President Trump ahead of November's mid-term elections. Jobs in goods-producing industries — mining, construction, and manufacturing — grew 3.3 percent in the year preceding July, the best rate since 1984, according to a Washington Post analysis.
Blue-collar jobs are growing at their fastest rate in more than 30 years, helping fuel a hiring boom in many small towns...
11 Aug 2018

In America, wage growth is getting wiped out entirely by inflation

Rising prices have erased U.S. workers’ meager wage gains, the latest sign strong economic growth has not translated into greater prosperity for the middle class and working class. Cost of living was up 2.9 percent from July 2017 to July 2018, the Labor Department reported Friday, an inflation rate that outstripped a 2.7 percent increase in wages over the same period.
Rising prices have erased U.S. workers’ meager wage gains, the latest sign strong economic growth has not translated...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

15 Aug 2019

Germany Nears Recession and Chinese Factories Slow in Trade War Fallout

In ominous signs of the damage being done by the trade war between China and the United States, data released on Wednesday indicated that the German economy was hurtling toward recession and that growth at Chinese factories was slowing at a pace not seen in nearly two decades.
In ominous signs of the damage being done by the trade war between China and the United States, data released on...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

17 Jul 2018

As Tensions With U.S. Worsen, Europe Courts New Partners

President Trump is inciting a trade war, undermining NATO and painting Europe as a foe. It’s no wonder, then, that the European Union is looking elsewhere for friends. On Tuesday in Tokyo, it signed its largest trade deal ever, a pact with Japan that will slash customs duties on products like European wine and cheese, while gradually reducing tariffs on cars. The agreement will cover a quarter of the global economy — by some measures the largest free-trade area in the world — and is the latest in a string of efforts either concluded or in the works with countries like Australia, Vietnam and even China.
President Trump is inciting a trade war, undermining NATO and painting Europe as a foe. It’s no wonder, then, that the...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

1 Aug 2019

Fed Cuts Interest Rates for First Time Since 2008 Crisis

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade on Wednesday as it attempted to guard the record-long economic expansion against mounting global risks. The widely expected quarter-point move, the Fed’s first since it cut rates to near zero in 2008, is meant to protect the economy against the potentially harmful effects of a growth slowdown in China and Europe and uncertainty from President Trump’s trade war.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade on Wednesday as it attempted to guard...
22 Aug 2019

U.S. deficit to expand by more than $800 billion over 10 years than previously expected, CBO says

America’s federal deficit will expand by about $800 billion more than previously expected over 10 years due primarily to two legislative packages approved this year, pushing the nation further into levels of debt unseen since the end of World War II, the Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday. The CBO also said that the impact of higher trade barriers, primarily President Trump’s trade war, could hurt economic growth amid widespread fears of a recession.
America’s federal deficit will expand by about $800 billion more than previously expected over 10 years due primarily...
5 Oct 2018

Steel is surging under Trump. Will workers benefit?

When President Trump imposed tariffs on steel imports in June, Richard Lattanzi thought of dozens of his fellow steelworkers who have for years put off badly needed repairs of their cars and homes. “There was a lot of excitement here; there were a lot of us saying, ‘It’s about time someone is looking out for us,’ ” said Lattanzi, the mayor of this town of 7,000 and a safety inspector at the U.S. Steel plant in nearby West Mifflin. “A lot of people around here were saying, ‘We’re going to be okay.’ ”
When President Trump imposed tariffs on steel imports in June, Richard Lattanzi thought of dozens of his fellow...
16 Jun 2018

For the biggest group of American workers, wages aren’t just flat. They’re falling.

The average hourly wage paid to a key group of American workers has fallen from last year when accounting for inflation, as an economy that appears strong by several measures continues to fail to create bigger paychecks, the federal government said Tuesday.
The average hourly wage paid to a key group of American workers has fallen from last year when accounting for...
15 Jun 2018

Trade war could wipe out gains of GOP tax law, former top Trump economic adviser says

Gary Cohn, who served as Trump's director of the National Economic Council but left amid a rift over the president's trade policies, said that retaliatory tariffs between countries could drive up inflation and prompt American consumers to take on more debt, possibly pushing the country into another economic downturn.
Gary Cohn, who served as Trump's director of the National Economic Council but left amid a rift over the...

Publisher: CNBC

Author:

20 Sep 2018

Jack Ma: Alibaba is no longer planning to create 1 million US jobs

Jack Ma, founder and chairman of Chinese retail giant Alibaba, says the company no longer plans to create 1 million jobs in the United States in the wake of the ongoing trade conflict between the U.S. and China.
Jack Ma, founder and chairman of Chinese retail giant Alibaba, says the company no longer plans to create 1 million jobs...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

13 Nov 2018

Trump’s Tax Cut Was Supposed to Change Corporate Behavior. Here’s What Happened.

The $1.5 trillion tax overhaul that President Trump signed into law late last year has already given the American economy a jolt, at least temporarily. It has fattened the paychecks of most American workers, padded the profits of large corporations and sped economic growth.
The $1.5 trillion tax overhaul that President Trump signed into law late last year has already given the American...
15 Aug 2019

Recession watch: What is an ‘inverted yield curve’ and why does it matter?

Stock markets tanked Wednesday after the bond market sounded a loud warning that the U.S. economy might be headed toward a recession. Investors are spooked by a scenario known as the “inverted yield curve,” which occurs when the interest rates on short-term bonds are higher than the interest rates paid by long-term bonds. What it means is that people are so worried about the near-term future that they are piling into safer long-term investments.
Stock markets tanked Wednesday after the bond market sounded a loud warning that the U.S. economy might be headed toward...

Publisher: CNN

Author:

16 Aug 2019

Stock market performance by president, from Reagan to Trump

President Donald Trump has repeatedly pointed to the stock market as one of the best ways to measure his administration’s policies. During Trump’s presidency, the S&P 500 has gained 25% from inauguration day through August 15. How does that stack up to stock performance at the same point in other modern presidencies? (647 trading days, to be exact).
President Donald Trump has repeatedly pointed to the stock market as one of the best ways to measure his...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

20 Sep 2019

Wall Street Is Buzzing About Repo Rates. Here’s Why.

Investors take for granted that the Federal Reserve controls interest rates. But a surprisingly lively couple of days in short-term money markets has meant that the “how” became nearly as important as the “why.” The stress started on Monday in the market for repurchase agreements, or repos. Repos are short-term loans mainly used by banks and hedge funds in their daily bond trading and brokerage businesses.
Investors take for granted that the Federal Reserve controls interest rates. But a surprisingly lively couple of days in...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

2 Aug 2019

Lower Rates Already Hit Housing. They’re Not Helping Much.

Cheaper mortgages are usually a boon to the housing market. But this year, a sharp drop in mortgage rates hasn’t provided much of a lift, and that could bode poorly for the Federal Reserve’s efforts to shore up economic growth.
Cheaper mortgages are usually a boon to the housing market. But this year, a sharp drop in mortgage rates hasn’t...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

10 Dec 2018

Wall St. Ignored Signs of Trouble for Months. Now It Sees Risks Everywhere

For stock investors in the United States, the political and economic outlooks have suddenly become ominous. More volatility could be in store this week. “The fact is that politics is driving the economy to an extent that is very atypical,” said Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG, an institutional brokerage firm. “We would say probably to the greatest extent that we’ve seen in our investing lifetime.”
For stock investors in the United States, the political and economic outlooks have suddenly become ominous. More...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

25 Jun 2018

What’s the Yield Curve? ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

The bond market’s yield curve is perilously close to predicting a recession — something it has done with surprising accuracy — and it’s become a big topic on Wall Street. Some economists on Wall Street think the economy could be growing at around a nearly 5 percent annualized clip this quarter. But if the current economic vigor is only reflecting a short-term stimulus coming from the Trump administration’s tax cut, then some kind of slowdown is to be expected.
The bond market’s yield curve is perilously close to predicting a recession — something it has done with surprising...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

1 May 2018

Investment Boom From Trump’s Tax Cut Has Yet to Appear

Republicans sold the 2017 tax law as “rocket fuel” for American  investment and growth, saying that corporations — flush with cash from  lower tax rates — would channel money back into the economy by building  factories and offices and investing in equipment, which would help companies grow and provide winnings for workers. But, so far, hard evidence of such an acceleration has yet to appear in economic data, which show more of a steady investment roll than a rapid escalation.
Republicans sold the 2017 tax law as “rocket fuel” for American  investment and growth, saying that...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

27 Feb 2018

Trump’s Tax Cuts in Hand, Companies Spend More on Themselves Than on Wages

President Trump promised that his tax cut would encourage companies to invest in factories, workers and wages, setting off a spending spree that would reinvigorate the American economy. Companies  have announced plans for some of those investments. But so far, companies are using much of the money for something with a more narrow  benefit: buying their own shares.
President Trump promised that his tax cut would encourage companies to invest in factories, workers and...
6 Dec 2016

United Tech CEO says Trump deal will lead to more automation, fewer jobs

In a TV interview with Greg Hayes, the CEO of United Technologies stated that reasons for keeping jobs in Indiana was government contracts,prospect of favorable regulations. He also said that Mexican workers are 80% cheaper and more dedicated. Furthermore UTC believes that with automation they can stay competitive in the US which will still result in job loss for US workers.
In a TV interview with Greg Hayes, the CEO of United Technologies stated that reasons for keeping jobs in Indiana...

Publisher: Salon

Author:

16 Feb 2017

America’s primary foreign creditors are starting to pull away

President Donald Trump’s ability to cheaply finance ambitious policy  goals like tax cuts and infrastructure development may be undermined by the sudden drop in foreign creditors purchasing American Treasuries.
President Donald Trump’s ability to cheaply finance ambitious policy  goals like tax cuts and...

Publisher: Vox

Author:

20 Feb 2017

Trump transition ordered government economists to cook up rosy growth forecasts

As the White House staff tries to put together a budget for President Donald Trump, they face a fundamental problem. Trump has promised to cut taxes, increase spending on the military and infrastructure, and avoid cuts to Social Security and Medicare. The only way to do that without producing an exploding budget deficit is to assume a big increase in economic growth. And Nick Timiraos at the Wall Street Journal reports that Trump is planning to do just that — by making things up.
As the White House staff tries to put together a budget for President Donald Trump, they face a fundamental problem....
22 Nov 2016

How to pay for Donald Trump’s trillion-dollar agenda? Congressional Republicans aren’t saying.

President-elect Donald Trump intends to launch a broad legislative  agenda that includes cutting taxes, rolling back the Affordable Care  Act, growing the military and rebuilding the nation’s infrastructure. The question is how congressional Republicans, after eight years of apocalyptic warnings about the growing national debt, will respond to the dire fiscal implications of proposals that would likely send the  deficit soaring.
President-elect Donald Trump intends to launch a broad legislative  agenda that...
15 Mar 2018

Trump’s new economics director is a climate denier who thinks animals can ‘snuggle’ under pipelines

As director of the National Economic Council, Kudlow will have a sizable influence on U.S. economic policy, including issues related to energy as well as domestic and international climate policies. Cohn, in his tenure as director, worked to keep the Trump administration from leaving the Paris climate agreement. Kudlow, with his history of climate denial, is unlikely to be similarly concerned with climate action.
As director of the National Economic Council, Kudlow will have a sizable influence on U.S. economic policy,...

Publisher: CNBC

Author:

12 Jul 2018

Global debt hits a new record at $247 trillion

Global debt has hit another high, climbing to $247 trillion in the first  quarter of 2018, according to a report published Wednesday. Of that figure, the non-financial sector accounted for $186 trillion.. “Firms have used artificially low rates to borrow in the capital markets and only buy back stock in the equity market,” LaVorgna said. “The inherent instability of debt over equity financing suggests that the next downturn could hit investment spending unusually hard.”
Global debt has hit another high, climbing to $247 trillion in the first  quarter of 2018, according to a...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

26 Nov 2018

G.M. to Idle Plants and Cut Thousands of Jobs as Sales Slow

General Motors announced Monday that it planned to idle five factories in North America and cut roughly 14,000 jobs in a bid to trim costs. It was a jarring reflection of the auto industry’s adjustment to changing consumer tastes and sluggish sales. The move, which follows job reductions by Ford Motor Company, further pares the work force in a sector that President Trump had promised to bolster.
General Motors announced Monday that it planned to idle five factories in North America and cut roughly 14,000 jobs in a...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

4 Jan 2017

Ford, Criticized by Trump, Cancels Plans to Build Mexican Plant

The company said on Tuesday that it would instead invest $700 million to increase production in Michigan. The CEO says the reason is because of market demands. They didn't see the demand for the cars they wanted to build in Mexico, so staying in the US was a business decision. He also said that he is encouraged by the pro growth policies signaled by the Trump administration.
The company said on Tuesday that it would instead invest $700 million to increase production in Michigan. The CEO says...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

4 May 2019

The Economy That Wasn’t Supposed to Happen: Booming Jobs, Low Inflation

The labor market the United States is experiencing right now wasn’t supposed to be possible. Not that long ago, the overwhelming consensus among economists would have been that you couldn’t have a 3.6 percent unemployment rate without also seeing the rate of job creation slowing (where are new workers going to come from with so few out of work, after all?) and having an inflation surge (a worker shortage should mean employers bidding up wages, right?).
The labor market the United States is experiencing right now wasn’t supposed to be possible. Not that long ago, the...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

25 Dec 2018

Economy Is Strong. Leadership Is Shaky. Which Will Win Out in 2019?

It is true that the global economy is sputtering, and that the stock market is in its worst pullback in a decade, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 index down more than 19 percent since Sept. 20 as of Monday’s close. But this sense of gloom and pessimism has gotten ahead of the facts on the ground, especially concerning the United States economy.The real risk is not that insurmountable challenges knock the economy off course. It is that poor leadership converts moderate economic shocks into a crisis.
It is true that the global economy is sputtering, and that the stock market is in its worst pullback in a decade, with...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

9 Jun 2018

How Good Is the Trump Economy, Really?

So what is the most honest way of talking about the Trump economy? It goes like this: The president inherited an economy that had come a long way toward healing. During his  administration, the economy has continued growing at about the same rate it did before he took office, pushing incomes, employment and output to yet higher levels. There are plenty of problems that remain in the United States, economic and otherwise, and the degree of credit the president deserves for the state  of the economy is an open debate.
So what is the most honest way of talking about the Trump economy? It goes like this: The president...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

11 Feb 2018

Liberals Wanted Fiscal Stimulus. Conservatives Delivered It.

Left-leaning economists hate the timing and the composition. But the expansionary fiscal policy they sought is on the way. The fiscal austerity that drove the budget deficit from around 9 percent of G.D.P. in 2010 to 3 percent in 2016 has, for practical purposes, been abandoned. First, Republicans passed a $1.5 trillion tax bill in December that sharply cut rates on businesses. Then last week they made a deal to undo budget caps demanded by the Republican House in 2011. President Trump signed that bill on Friday.
Left-leaning economists hate the timing and the composition. But the expansionary fiscal policy they sought is on the...
7 Jun 2019

Jobs Report Is Weak, With Gain of 75,000; Unemployment Rate Still 3.6%

The latest report was a disappointing showing that will stoke fears the economy is softening as the Trump administration’s trade war with China and potentially Mexico escalates. The Federal Reserve has signaled that it would consider a rate cut in the event of economic weakness, and May’s data is likely to be an important factor in their decisions.
The latest report was a disappointing showing that will stoke fears the economy is softening as the Trump...

Publisher: wsj.com

Author:

16 Sep 2016

Donald Trump Promises Tax Cuts, More Spending Offset by Robust Growth

Donald Trump put forward his most detailed economic blueprint, promising significantly stronger economic growth to offset the steep price tag of proposed tax-rate cuts and new infrastructure and defense spending. Advocates of balanced budgets have reacted cautiously to proposals, such as Mr. Trump’s that would cut taxes and boost defense and infrastructure spending without specific measures to avoid higher deficits if growth doesn’t materialize.
Donald Trump put forward his most detailed economic blueprint, promising significantly stronger economic growth to...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

7 Sep 2018

In a Sign of the Economy’s Strength, Jobs and Wages Moved Higher in August

Low-, middle- and high-skilled jobs all saw some wage growth. Even so, the job market can vary radically depending on what people do and where they live. “In some occupations — typically those with low-skill requirements and relatively pleasant working conditions — there is a huge oversupply of candidates,” said Julia Pollak, a labor economist at the online employment market site ZipRecruiter.
Low-, middle- and high-skilled jobs all saw some wage growth. Even so, the job market can vary radically depending on...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

25 Jul 2018

U.S. Businesses Are Bullish Amid Worldwide Instability

Potential perils are in plain sight: An intense and unpredictable tariff battle is alarming businesses across the country. The annual federal deficit is heading toward $1 trillion. Credit card debt is soaring. And the synchronous wave that lifted every world economy at the year’s start has dissipated. So what? Such risks have done little to puncture the exuberant optimism that is encouraging American businesses to ramp up hiring and consider new investment.
Potential perils are in plain sight: An intense and unpredictable tariff battle is alarming businesses...

Publisher: NBC News

Author:

10 Oct 2018

Trump’s tariffs have already cost Ford $1B; now it’s planning layoffs

Ford will be making cuts to its 70,000-strong white-collar workforce in a move it calls a "redesign" of its staff to be leaner, have fewer layers, and offer more decision-making power to employees, the company announced.
Ford will be making cuts to its 70,000-strong white-collar workforce in a move it calls a "redesign" of its staff to be...
21 May 2017

U.S., Saudi firms sign tens of billions of dollars of deals as Trump visits

U.S. and Saudi  Arabian companies signed business deals worth tens of billions of  dollars on Saturday during a visit by U.S. President Donald Trump, as  Riyadh seeks help to develop its economy beyond oil. National oil firm Saudi Aramco said it signed $50 billion of agreements with U.S. firms. Energy minister Khalid al-Falih said deals involving all companies totaled over $200 billion, many of them designed to produce things in Saudi Arabia that had previously been imported.
U.S. and Saudi  Arabian companies signed business deals worth tens of billions of  dollars on Saturday during...
24 Feb 2018

How Democrats Can Offer Real Solutions to America’s Problems

The pledge calls for a clear commitment to a far different course. Major elements include rebuilding America while guaranteeing the right to a job. Public investment—modernizing a dangerously decrepit infrastructure—is the centerpiece of the jobs and growth agenda, not trickle-down tax cuts that only add to inequality. That investment  should be focused in part on the transition to a sustainable green energy economy. Meeting the clear and present security threat posed by  catastrophic climate change can be the greatest source of jobs and innovation since the move to the suburbs after World War II.
The pledge calls for a clear commitment to a far different course. Major elements include rebuilding America while...

Publisher: Politico

Author:

22 Oct 2018

Trump tariffs lead to bleak 2019 farm forecasts

President Donald Trump’s trade war is already prompting farmers and agricultural forecasters to plan for a dismal 2019 growing season before the fall harvest is complete. Trade disputes — namely the escalating feud with China — have weighed on commodity prices and the president has threatened to ratchet up tariffs rather than ease tensions come Jan. 1. To boot, ordinary business costs like fertilizer and fuel appear to be on the rise, further squeezing bottom lines.
President Donald Trump’s trade war is already prompting farmers and agricultural forecasters to plan for a dismal 2019...
11 Sep 2019

Six in 10 Americans expect a recession and higher prices as Trump’s approval rating slips amid concern over his trade policies

President Trump is ending a tumultuous summer with his approval rating slipping back from a July high as Americans express widespread concern about the trade war with China and a majority of voters now expect a recession within the next year, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
President Trump is ending a tumultuous summer with his approval rating slipping back from a July high as Americans...
25 Nov 2016

Trump Tariff Threat Gains Tactical Victory in Kentucky

A mere fortnight after becoming President-elect, Donald Trump’s tariff threat gained a tactical victory in the battle to keep American jobs at home.Trump announced via Twitter that Ford Motor Company intentions to transfer SUV production south of the border were shelved. Chairman Bill Ford “advised me that he will be keeping the Lincoln plant in Kentucky - no Mexico,” Trump tweeted last Thursday.
A mere fortnight after becoming President-elect, Donald Trump’s tariff threat gained a tactical victory in the battle...
22 Dec 2017

GOP tax plan doubles down on policies that are crushing the middle class

The middle class, which Pew defines as two-thirds to two times the national median income for a given household size, began to grow after World War II due to a surge in  economic growth and because President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s New Deal gave workers more power. Before that, most Americans were poor or nearly so.
The middle class, which Pew defines as two-thirds to two times the national median income for a...
7 Jan 2018

Companies that announced big bonuses after GOP tax cut are now laying off their workers

At least two major companies that publicly announced large bonuses for their employees after the passage of a massive GOP-led tax overhaul — which represented a windfall for wealthy Americans and big corporations — quietly laid off hundreds of workers at the same time. Comcast laid off more than 500 sales employees right before Christmas, AT&T is also in the process of laying off thousands of employees,
At least two major companies that publicly announced large bonuses for their employees after the passage of a massive...

Publisher: NYTimes

Author:

17 Apr 2019

If Trump Country Soars, Will the President Glide to a Second Term?

In small but politically significant ways, the economy under President Trump has favored regions and constituencies that supported him in 2016. These are the men and women whom Trump called forgotten Americans.
In small but politically significant ways, the economy under President Trump has favored regions and constituencies that...
30 Dec 2016

Trump Claims Credit For Bringing Back Sprint Jobs That Were Already Announced

The thousands of telecommunications jobs President-elect Donald Trump claimed Wednesday that he was bringing back to the United States were part of a previously announced investment deal between Sprint and its main funder, SoftBank. "5,000 jobs announced today are part of the 50,000 jobs that [SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son] previously announced. It will be a combination of newly created jobs and bringing some existing jobs back to the U.S," a Sprint spokeswoman said in a statement to Politico, after Trump made his announcement to the press.
The thousands of telecommunications jobs President-elect Donald Trump claimed Wednesday that he was bringing back to the...
1 May 2019

Workers barely benefited from Trump’s sweeping tax cut, investigation shows

Big companies drove Donald Trump’s tax cut law but refused to commit to any specific wage hikes for workers, despite repeated White House promises it would help employees, an investigation shows. The 2017 Tax and Jobs Act – the Trump administration’s one major piece of enacted legislation – did deliver the biggest corporate tax cut in US history, but ultimately workers benefited almost not at all.
Big companies drove Donald Trump’s tax cut law but refused to commit to any specific wage hikes for workers, despite...

Publisher: Asia Times

Author:

14 Nov 2018

Sliding Chinese yuan risks Trump trade war backlash

The laws of Trumponomics, after all, are more about resentment and victimhood than stirring animal spirits. And no woe-is-America narrative is more pervasive in the Trump era than China “raping” the US workforce and “stealing” growth from Washington. An undervalued yuan is a pillar of this theory. It’s “killing us,” as Trump likes to say. Expect Trump’s ire to increase as the yuan weakens past 7 to the dollar – from today’s 6.96 – thanks to PBOC largess. That might provoke him to ratchet up the trade war.
The laws of Trumponomics, after all, are more about resentment and victimhood than stirring animal spirits. And no...

Publisher: Forbes

Author:

12 Aug 2018

Trump’s Economic Scorecard: Higher Inflation, Flat Wages And A Ballooning Federal Deficit

In the past few days, new economic reports have come out that don’t paint a very rosy picture for a number of economic items. While GDP hit 4.1% for the June quarter, but only 2.9% year over year, and the unemployment rate is hovering at all-time lows, inflation continues to increase, real wages are stagnant and the federal budget deficit is ballooning
In the past few days, new economic reports have come out that don’t paint a very rosy picture for a number of economic...

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