The labor market the United States is experiencing right now wasn’t supposed to be possible. Not that long ago, the overwhelming consensus among economists would have been that you couldn’t have a 3.6 percent unemployment rate without also seeing the rate of job creation slowing (where are new workers going to come from with so few out of work, after all?) and having an inflation surge (a worker shortage should mean employers bidding up wages, right?).
It is true that the global economy is sputtering, and that the stock market is in its worst pullback in a decade, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 index down more than 19 percent since Sept. 20 as of Monday’s close. But this sense of gloom and pessimism has gotten ahead of the facts on the ground, especially concerning the United States economy.The real risk is not that insurmountable challenges knock the economy off course. It is that poor leadership converts moderate economic shocks into a crisis.
So what is the most honest way of talking about the Trump economy? It goes like this: The president inherited an economy that had come a long way toward healing. During his administration, the economy has continued growing at about the same rate it did before he took office, pushing incomes, employment and output to yet higher levels. There are plenty of problems that remain in the United States, economic and otherwise, and the degree of credit the president deserves for the state of the economy is an open debate.
Left-leaning economists hate the timing and the composition. But the expansionary fiscal policy they sought is on the way. The fiscal austerity that drove the budget deficit from around 9 percent of G.D.P. in 2010 to 3 percent in 2016 has, for practical purposes, been abandoned. First, Republicans passed a $1.5 trillion tax bill in December that sharply cut rates on businesses. Then last week they made a deal to undo budget caps demanded by the Republican House in 2011. President Trump signed that bill on Friday.
A plan from Republicans would focus on domestic cash flow instead of corporate income, and could have a huge effect on the path of the economy. The tax is focused on boosting exports and reduce trade deficits. Many economist think it won't work because the value of dollar will change.
Basically what is being promised by the Trump team doesn't match the plan unveiled in September. Economist are not clear of the effects. They claim that cutting corporate taxes will bring back jobs but experts can not reach the same conclusion when they run the numbers