This article explains possible plans that would lead to a structural change in Iran in the short term. The first step is to increase sanctions on the Iranian government. The sanctions should be designed in such a way that within the coming year the reserves of the Iranian government are reduced as much as possible. Consequently, the Iranian government will have to choose between assuring people s costs of living and bribing its supporters in order to maintain its status quo.
The current internal dispute coupled by more economic hardship, growing public discontent and increasing international sanctions has made the Iranian regime more vulnerable than before. The prospect of the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and its consequences, including among others, cutting the direct physical link with Hezbollah, is a nightmare for the Iranian rulers.
The latest weapon in this country s ideological war with Iran arrived late last month in an armada of jets from California, accompanied by a private security force, dazzling pyrotechnics and a wardrobe that consisted of sequins and not much else. A crowd of nearly 30,000 gathered to watch as the leader of this mini-invasion pranced onto a stage built on the edge of the Caspian Sea. With a shout of "Hello, lovers!" Jennifer Lopez wiggled out of her skirt and launched into a throbbing disco anthem, delighting her Azerbaijani fans and - it was hoped - infuriating the turbaned ayatollahs who live just across the water.
The Syrians PROVED that Khamenei s favored counterinsurgency tactics can be undone by even a handful of determined and lightly armed defectors (aka People Protectors) . First because urban combat exacts a heavy toll on even elite and well-equipped troops and their armored vehicles let alone untrained paramilitary scum or unmotivated troops.
For the last two years, Kahlili has gone semipublic with a memoir, a blog, op-ed pieces and invitation-only speeches at think tanks. He warns that Iran operates terrorist sleeper cells inside the United States and is determined to build nuclear weapons to destroy Israel. The U.S. should respond, he argues, by supporting the opposition inside Iran. He travels furtively between appearances, working as a Pentagon consultant and as a member of a domestic security task force.
After three and a half years of attempting to halt Iran's nuclear program with diplomacy, sanctions and sabotage, the Obama administration and its allies are imposing sweeping new sanctions that are meant to cut the country off from the global oil market. Many experts regard it as the best hope for forcing Iran to change its course.
The EU's oil embargo comes into full effect on Sunday, marking a dramatic escalation in the pressure on Iran over its nuclear programme. But while the sanctions are biting deeper into Iranians' lives with each passing day, it is less clear whether they will alter the minds of the Tehran leadership.
A European Union embargo on Iranian oil comes into effect on Sunday with Western governments hopeful economic pain will persuade Tehran to scale back its nuclear work but also mindful they are pushing against the limits of sanctions. Combined with new measures coming into force this week in the United States, the European ban constitutes a major international push to pressure the Iranian government over its nuclear ambitions.
In the wake of Iran's refusal to rein in its contentious nuclear program at talks in Moscow, the U.S. military buildup in the Persian Gulf is gathering pace, with four more Navy mine countermeasures ships arriving at the weekend. The Avenger class vessels out of San Diego will join eight U.S. and British navy mine hunters deployed in the region.
The United States, European Union, and Israel would like to encourage democratic political change in Iran, replacing the mullahs and generals with fairly elected figures. That course has no such appeal to Saudi Arabia. Unable to destroy Iran, protracted weakening of the state is within the Saudis' grasp - though lording it over its Gulf neighbors would not be wise use of Riyadh's power and hegemony.
In reality, [Obama's] administration is "buying time" for a more pernicious agenda: time for covert action to sabotage Tehran's nuclear program; time for sanctions to set the stage for regime change in Iran; and time for the United States, its European and Sunni Arab partners, and Turkey to weaken the Islamic Republic by overthrowing the Assad government in Syria.
Iranians say they are feeling the pinch of sanctions in the price of meat and other daily essentials, but in spite of growing popular anger toward the government, analysts believe little will change.