As I watched the 23-minute video of Monday's raid by Iranian security forces on the offices of the newspaper Iran, using tear gas and electric batons to seize President Ahmadinejad's senior advisor Ali Akbar Javanfekr --- while Javanfekr's staff tried to block their way and set fire to papers --- I was reminded of our response last week to the declaration, "Ahmadinejad has risen like a phoenix from the ashes": "The pendulum does not swing that far. Rocky does not throw a climactic punch. The Phoenix does not rise."

Over the last 48 hours, reports have emerged of an extraordinary speech by President Ahmadinejad to a group of his backers, the Supporters of Islamic Revolution Dialogue, in Tehran. Our initial reaction was "Did he really say that?" And that as the reports built in their detail, we began to consider, "If he did say that, what does it mean for the conflict inside the Iranian system?"

Ahmadinejad had warned last month, amidst the increasing pressure on his camp with arrests of his advisors, that he could reveal information that would embarrass key officials within the Iranian establishment. Last weekend he told journalists that there was a "red line" against moves on his Cabinet and inner circle --- when State broadcaster IRIB censored the passsage, his staff posted the uncut video on the President's official website.

even in the context of the recent tensions between President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader --- began to emerge from Iran. Abbas Ghaffari, a member of the President's staff, had been arrested.

The new website Hafte Sobh, reportedly linked to Presidential aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, claims that Ahmadinejad will participate in an already-scheduled TV interview next week only if the program is broadcast live.

This power struggle within Iran's political elite will be on full display during the March 8-9 semiannual meeting of the Assembly of Experts, the body charged with selecting the country's Supreme Leader and, in the case of the imminent meeting, electing a head of the assembly for the coming year.